Gibo, Chiz gain; Erap, Noynoy lose ground in new Davao survey

Here is the result of the latest survey in the First District of Davao.

It was taken last Saturday, October 10, in nine barangays (5-A, 8-A, 39-D, 40-D, Ma-a, Matina Crossing, Matina Pangi, Bago Aplaya, Bago Gallera) with 240 respondents.

Rank President Oct 10 Sept 3 Change
1 Aquino 35.0 37.4 -2.4
2 Escudero 20.4 14.8 6.8
3 Estrada 17.1 24.1 -7.0
4 Villar 13.3 13.0 0.3
5 Teodoro 8.3 0.0 8.3
6 Villanueva 2.1 0.4 1.7

The September 3 survey was taken also in nine but different barangays in the district, which includes the poblacion and southern suburban areas of downtown Davao City.

Luzon goes Noynoy

The SWS survey in Luzon has confirmed Senator Noynoy has now become the man to beat in next year’s polls.

He polled 50%, the highest ever among the so-called presidentiables since polling to track voter preference started more than two years ago.

This survey also confirmed results of our own survey in the first district of Davao that he can win support from erstwhile supporters of other presidentiables, cutting across all political forces and economic classes.

The survey also revealed an interesting fact. He gets more support every time a presidentiable’s name is taken out in the survey, getting a high of 63% in a three-way fight among Noynoy, Villar and de Castro, and 55% in a four-way contest among Noynoy, Villar, Erap and de Castro.

He needs to sustain the momentum is how one vice mayor in Davao told me in reaction to the survey result.

Well, the Noynoy support groups are mounting more activities this week in Davao including community and campus tours, Rock the Vote Concert, Piso-piso fund drive and start of round-table discussions in crafting a Mindanao Agenda for Noynoy.

Noynoy accepts challenge

Senator Noynoy Aquino has finally accepted the challenge and responsibility to continue the legacy of his parents and lead the country by running as president next year.

He made the announcement just a while ago at the historic Club Filipino in San Juan, Metro Manila.

Here in Davao, the planned activities to mark the 40th day of mourning on the passing away of former President Cory Aquino would now become the opening salvo for Noynoy for President Movement.

A motorcade is now underway in the city’s main streets towards the Matina Town Center (MTS) where an inter-faith prayer service and assembly of various Noynoy support groups would be held.

I was invited to represent the Liberal Party. I will also represent Mayor Rody Duterte is the activity.

At noon, a mass would be held at the San Pedro Cathedral with Raffy Lopa representing the Aquino clan.

In 20 minutes it would be 9 am of September 9, 2009 or 09-09-09-09. Will this bring luck to Noynoy and win in 2010?

Well, your guess is as good as mine.

An interesting mix

I started to compile a list of key personalities in Davao who expressed support for Senator Noynoy to run as president in 2010.

This is a clear proof that Senator Noynoy’s appeal cuts across the wide spectrum of Pinoy politics. This gives flesh to the result of our survey that Noynoy can draw away support from almost all presidentiables.

A former congressman from Davao del Sur whose father is the pre-martial law Mister Nacionalista in the Davao Region;

A former vice governor of Davao del Norte whose father is a key Lakas-Kampi official;

An incumbent vice mayor of one of the cities in the Davao Region identified with Kampi;

A retired Police Superintendent;

A former COMELEC official in Sultan Kudarat;

A member of the Maguindanao royalty;

A former official of the Mindanao Business Council seen in one Manny Villar function;

A youth leader previously identified with Jeep ni Erap;

A businessman previously identified with the movement to draft Chief Justice Puno for president.

An interesting mix indeed.

A “quickie?”

I met two groups during the weekend who expressed concern about the much-publicized “spiritual retreat” of Senator Noynoy Aquino to help him decide on a presidential run in 2010.

One was surprised about his brief stay at the Carmelite Monastery in Zamboanga. They described it as a “quickie!”

Well, I myself was expecting Noynoy to go on several days of seclusion, prayer and discernment.

Possibly because he was hounded by the media wherever he goes, Noynoy’s expected peace and quiet to commune with God was constantly disrupted.

One group told me they did not expect Noynoy to be Jesus to go on “40 days and 40 nights of prayer and fasting.” But at least, they suggested, he should not give ammunition to his enemies (read Malacanang) that his retreat was a mere “political gimmick.”

It’s perfectly the right of anyone to seek divine guidance, they contend, but they at the same time warned not to belittle the process of a spiritual retreat.

I agree.

And Noynoy will have to be careful from now on about what he say and do. He is no longer just the son of Ninoy and Cory or a senator of the land, he is now perceived as a “presidentiable” and therefore, a fair game in the country’s murky political arena.

Noynoy tops, reshapes poll rankings

Many are asking and wondering whether the so-called “Cory Magic” and the surging popularity of Senator Noynoy Aquino would translate into votes for next year’s presidential elections.

Well, here is our first glimpse to answer that question. Noynoy topped the survey conducted yesterday in the First District of Davao City.

The survey was conducted by Paelarkaed Communications with 270 respondents in nine barangays with a margin of error of +/- 5% and an accuracy level of 90%.

Please note that Noynoy was in Davao City during the time of the survey on his way to his spiritual retreat in Zamboanga City. The names of Senator Mar Roxas and Jejomar Binay were no longer included in the list of presidentiables in the survey that asked respondents “Who from among the list do you like to be President of the Philippines?”

Please note also that all the presidentiables lost support compared to last month’s survey. This means that Noynoy’s appeal can generate support from almost all political forces.

President
Rank	Name	Aug	Sept	Difference
1	Noynoy	0.0	37.4	37.4
2	Erap	27.8	24.1	-3.7
3	Chiz	20.0	14.8	-5.2
4	Villar	15.0	13.0	-2.0
5	Noli	13.9	9.3	-4.6
6	Loren	5.0	1.1	-3.9
7	Villanueva	1.1	0.4	-0.7
8	(Roxas)	10.6	0.0	-10.6
9	(Binay)	3.3	0.0	-3.3
10	Fernando	1.1	0.0	-1.1
11	Teodoro	0.6	0.0	-0.6
12	Gordon	0.0	0.0	0.0

Noynoy in Davao

Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino, after announcing in Manila last night that he is going on a spiritual retreat and discernment before deciding on his plans for the 2010 presidential race, flew to Davao City this morning.

He is on his way to the Carmelite Monastery in Zamboanga and decided to take the connecting flight in the city. He is now in a private meeting with a close friend of his mother, Jesus V. Ayala.

Local media are finding a way to interview him.

He will proceed to Zamboanga after lunch.

Meanwhile, the K NA! (Kabataang para kay Noynoy Aquino), a local youth group organized last week, are massed up at the city’s Centennial Park continuing to gather signatures to convince the young senator to run for president.

Back to blog

I am now back to blog.

It has been more than five months since I took this self-imposed leave, partly in protest, partly because of the weak net signal in my house.

Protest?

Well, I stop blogging because the Headquarters of Senator Mar Roxas for President accused my blog of feeding information to the enemy! Har har har.

Now, that Roxas has ended his quest just three hours ago to run for President to give way to Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino, I felt that I can now go back to blogging. Thank God no more eager-beaver campaigners of Roxas to spite me who gave more premium to security than transparency or empowering the Roxas campaign and the people through blogging.

As local chair of the Liberal Party in Davao, I was organizing party units in the Davao Region and forming groups to support Roxas until I was forced to quit in April due to these unfounded accusations that “my blog was feeding information to the enemy.”

Of course, it is not my nature to “feed the enemy with information” or to put my principal at risk. The contents of my blog were not party or state secrets. I was really floored by the baseless accusations against my blog. Hence my leave of absence as a sort of protest.

I guess my silence has won the fight today.

What have I been doing since I took the leave you might ask?

Well, I organized, produced and co-hosted The Evening News Davao in local cable television. It is the only evening news in the city and it airs from Monday to Friday at 6:30 to 7:30 p.m. and replayed at 12 midnight.

So, I was terribly busy these past few months.

Now, that I am back to blog, I would have to find time to do this as regularly as I can.

And hopefully not “to feed any enemy with information.” Har har har!

LP riding on moral high

The First Gentleman attacks the Liberal Party in his futile attempt to defend the Ombudsman.

Well, that’s really good for the party. This positions the party on the side of good governance, anti-corruption and for the welfare of the people. That is, in contrast to the Gloria administration that has become the shame of the nation.

This also reinforces the designation by the COMELEC in the 2007 elections that the LP being the dominant opposition party in the country.

In the forthcoming 2010 elections, the LP rides on the moral high ground as the party for good governance and anti-corruption ranged against the administration and other trapos.

Incidentally, I was with Rep Erin Tanada, House LP head, here in Davao last month when he received a call from Manila about plans to file an impeachment case against the Ombudsman. So, it is not correct that this impeachment was filed as a reaction to the Ombudsman case filed last week against former Rep. Neric Acosta of Bukidnon.

Senator Risa

Good luck to the bid of Risa to bag a seat in the Senate!

Another soldier senator?

Is he cooking up another coup or building up forces to follow the lead of Antonio Trillanes to win but not sit in the Senate?

Check out jailed BGen. Danny Lim in uniting a squad of military oriented groups.

Soldiers/Policemen in the are Senate Pong Biazon, PMA classmates Gringo Honasan and Ping Lacson, and Trillanes, who like Lim is incarcerated.

Among the 1st to sign up

Yup, here’s proof that I was one of the first to sign up for Mar in 2010. This was taken Tuesday night at the launch of the “Unang Daan” or the first hundred partisans for Senator Mar Roxas held at the Clubhouse at the Araneta Center in Cubao.

Political dynasties

In his column today at the Manila Times, Marlen Ronquillo wrote about political dynasties. He asks “are they good or bad?”

He did not really answer his own question. Instead, he cited the proliferation of political clans from his native Pampanga spawning 2nd and 3rd generations of politicians and others spreading to many parts of the country.

Davao is likewise ruled by political clans. In fact, more than 80 percent of incumbent elected officials have relatives who were similarly elected in the past or have been in high positions. Here’s my initial list:

Mayor Rody Duterte/ Vice Mayor Sara Duterte/ Councilor Paolo Duterte – father/grandfather Vicente Duterte was Governor of undivided Davao and Secretary of General Services; brother/ uncle Benjamin Duterte was one-term City Councilor;

Speaker and 1st District Rep Boy Nograles – uncle Antonio Castillo was long-time City Councilor; uncle Pedro Castillo was 1971 Concon Delegate; brother Gerry Nograles served as one-term City Councilor

2nd District Rep Vince Garcia – father Manuel “Nonoy” Garcia was Batasan Pambansa Member and Congressman; grandfather was former Mayor Leon Garcia; a number of cousins are members of the City Council – Garcia-Monteverde-Bangoy-Reta clan

3rd District Rep Sid Ungab – father was Deputy Mayor; related also to Partylist Rep and former City Councilor Luz Calolot Ilagan;

Councilors:

Nilo Abellera – father was former City Councilor; brother was former OIC Vice Mayor;

Mabel Sunga Acosta –

Vic Advincula –

Wilberto Al-ag – brother and wife are Barangay Captains;

Dante Apostol, Sr. – father was appointed City Councilor; brother is Barangay Captain;

Leo Avila III –

Conrado Baluran – son is Barangay Councilor;

Samuel Bangoy – grandfather was former Governor; uncles and brother were members of the City Council; related with Garcia-Monteverde-Bangoy-Reta clan

Karlo Bello – grandfather was former City Mayor and Congressman; father served in many Cabinet posts;

Louie John Bonguyan – father was former City Councilor and Vice Mayor; uncle is Barangay Councilor

Pilar Braga – father was former Governor;

Arnolfo Ricardo Cabling – father is Barangay Captain; uncle former City Councilor;

Danilo Dayanghirang – relatives served in various posts in Davao Oriental and Compostela Valley;

Edgar Ibuyan – son is Barangay Captain;

Peter Lavina –

Diosdado Mahipus, Sr. – brother-in-law was City Councilor;

Tess Mata-Maranon – mother was former City Councilor;

Bonifacio Militar – son is a Barangay Councilor;

Tomas Monteverde – father was long-time City Councilor; related with Garcia-Monteverde-Bangoy-Reta clan;

Myrna Dalodo-Ortiz – father and brother were City Councilors;

Susabel Reta – husband was City Councilor; brother-in-law is Barangay Captain; related with Garcia-Monteverde-Bangoy-Reta Clan;

Halila Sudagar –

Angela Librado-Trinidad – father and mother were both City Councilors;

Louie Villafuerte – father was City Councilor;

Rachel Zozobrado – father was City Councilor

The absence of genuine political parties in the country gave rise to these political dynasties. These clans played the crucial role in organizing the citizens, particularly their own relatives, provincemates and friends into potent political machineries. They have also invested resources in maintaining such political organizations in between elections. It is therefore not surprising if the same machineries would carry one of their own in the succeeding political contests.

So, are they good or bad? Your guess is as good as mine.

But judging from the sheer numbers, political dynasties must be acceptable to the electorates.

Cabinet men seeking Congress posts

Our New Year’s Day post is in the news today.

I would be back to my usual round of meetings starting today. At 2  pm at the Davao City Sports Council, Inc. to take up among others the 1st Vic Sai Sports Journalism Awards, and at 6 pm at the Dabaw Kaisa Foundation which is spearheading the Chinese New Year celebration in the city.

During the holiday break, I learned that a number of cabinet secretaries are planning to run for congressional seats in 2010. Is this a definite sign the Palace occupant is finally giving up hope for any extension?

Hhhhmmmm.,,

Among those reportedly seeking Congress posts are Press Secretary Jess Dureza and Cabinet Secretary Bebot Bello III in the 1st District and 3rd District of Davao City, respectively; Aggie Secretary Arthur Yap in Bohol, and PMS Head Cerge Remonde in the South Cebu District.

Historic vote