Gibo, Chiz gain; Erap, Noynoy lose ground in new Davao survey

Here is the result of the latest survey in the First District of Davao.

It was taken last Saturday, October 10, in nine barangays (5-A, 8-A, 39-D, 40-D, Ma-a, Matina Crossing, Matina Pangi, Bago Aplaya, Bago Gallera) with 240 respondents.

Rank President Oct 10 Sept 3 Change
1 Aquino 35.0 37.4 -2.4
2 Escudero 20.4 14.8 6.8
3 Estrada 17.1 24.1 -7.0
4 Villar 13.3 13.0 0.3
5 Teodoro 8.3 0.0 8.3
6 Villanueva 2.1 0.4 1.7

The September 3 survey was taken also in nine but different barangays in the district, which includes the poblacion and southern suburban areas of downtown Davao City.

Luzon goes Noynoy

The SWS survey in Luzon has confirmed Senator Noynoy has now become the man to beat in next year’s polls.

He polled 50%, the highest ever among the so-called presidentiables since polling to track voter preference started more than two years ago.

This survey also confirmed results of our own survey in the first district of Davao that he can win support from erstwhile supporters of other presidentiables, cutting across all political forces and economic classes.

The survey also revealed an interesting fact. He gets more support every time a presidentiable’s name is taken out in the survey, getting a high of 63% in a three-way fight among Noynoy, Villar and de Castro, and 55% in a four-way contest among Noynoy, Villar, Erap and de Castro.

He needs to sustain the momentum is how one vice mayor in Davao told me in reaction to the survey result.

Well, the Noynoy support groups are mounting more activities this week in Davao including community and campus tours, Rock the Vote Concert, Piso-piso fund drive and start of round-table discussions in crafting a Mindanao Agenda for Noynoy.

Noynoy accepts challenge

Senator Noynoy Aquino has finally accepted the challenge and responsibility to continue the legacy of his parents and lead the country by running as president next year.

He made the announcement just a while ago at the historic Club Filipino in San Juan, Metro Manila.

Here in Davao, the planned activities to mark the 40th day of mourning on the passing away of former President Cory Aquino would now become the opening salvo for Noynoy for President Movement.

A motorcade is now underway in the city’s main streets towards the Matina Town Center (MTS) where an inter-faith prayer service and assembly of various Noynoy support groups would be held.

I was invited to represent the Liberal Party. I will also represent Mayor Rody Duterte is the activity.

At noon, a mass would be held at the San Pedro Cathedral with Raffy Lopa representing the Aquino clan.

In 20 minutes it would be 9 am of September 9, 2009 or 09-09-09-09. Will this bring luck to Noynoy and win in 2010?

Well, your guess is as good as mine.

An interesting mix

I started to compile a list of key personalities in Davao who expressed support for Senator Noynoy to run as president in 2010.

This is a clear proof that Senator Noynoy’s appeal cuts across the wide spectrum of Pinoy politics. This gives flesh to the result of our survey that Noynoy can draw away support from almost all presidentiables.

A former congressman from Davao del Sur whose father is the pre-martial law Mister Nacionalista in the Davao Region;

A former vice governor of Davao del Norte whose father is a key Lakas-Kampi official;

An incumbent vice mayor of one of the cities in the Davao Region identified with Kampi;

A retired Police Superintendent;

A former COMELEC official in Sultan Kudarat;

A member of the Maguindanao royalty;

A former official of the Mindanao Business Council seen in one Manny Villar function;

A youth leader previously identified with Jeep ni Erap;

A businessman previously identified with the movement to draft Chief Justice Puno for president.

An interesting mix indeed.

A “quickie?”

I met two groups during the weekend who expressed concern about the much-publicized “spiritual retreat” of Senator Noynoy Aquino to help him decide on a presidential run in 2010.

One was surprised about his brief stay at the Carmelite Monastery in Zamboanga. They described it as a “quickie!”

Well, I myself was expecting Noynoy to go on several days of seclusion, prayer and discernment.

Possibly because he was hounded by the media wherever he goes, Noynoy’s expected peace and quiet to commune with God was constantly disrupted.

One group told me they did not expect Noynoy to be Jesus to go on “40 days and 40 nights of prayer and fasting.” But at least, they suggested, he should not give ammunition to his enemies (read Malacanang) that his retreat was a mere “political gimmick.”

It’s perfectly the right of anyone to seek divine guidance, they contend, but they at the same time warned not to belittle the process of a spiritual retreat.

I agree.

And Noynoy will have to be careful from now on about what he say and do. He is no longer just the son of Ninoy and Cory or a senator of the land, he is now perceived as a “presidentiable” and therefore, a fair game in the country’s murky political arena.

Noynoy tops, reshapes poll rankings

Many are asking and wondering whether the so-called “Cory Magic” and the surging popularity of Senator Noynoy Aquino would translate into votes for next year’s presidential elections.

Well, here is our first glimpse to answer that question. Noynoy topped the survey conducted yesterday in the First District of Davao City.

The survey was conducted by Paelarkaed Communications with 270 respondents in nine barangays with a margin of error of +/- 5% and an accuracy level of 90%.

Please note that Noynoy was in Davao City during the time of the survey on his way to his spiritual retreat in Zamboanga City. The names of Senator Mar Roxas and Jejomar Binay were no longer included in the list of presidentiables in the survey that asked respondents “Who from among the list do you like to be President of the Philippines?”

Please note also that all the presidentiables lost support compared to last month’s survey. This means that Noynoy’s appeal can generate support from almost all political forces.

President
Rank Name Aug Sept Difference
1 Noynoy 0.0 37.4 37.4
2 Erap 27.8 24.1 -3.7
3 Chiz 20.0 14.8 -5.2
4 Villar 15.0 13.0 -2.0
5 Noli 13.9 9.3 -4.6
6 Loren 5.0 1.1 -3.9
7 Villanueva 1.1 0.4 -0.7
8 (Roxas) 10.6 0.0 -10.6
9 (Binay) 3.3 0.0 -3.3
10 Fernando 1.1 0.0 -1.1
11 Teodoro 0.6 0.0 -0.6
12 Gordon 0.0 0.0 0.0

Noynoy in Davao

Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino, after announcing in Manila last night that he is going on a spiritual retreat and discernment before deciding on his plans for the 2010 presidential race, flew to Davao City this morning.

He is on his way to the Carmelite Monastery in Zamboanga and decided to take the connecting flight in the city. He is now in a private meeting with a close friend of his mother, Jesus V. Ayala.

Local media are finding a way to interview him.

He will proceed to Zamboanga after lunch.

Meanwhile, the K NA! (Kabataang para kay Noynoy Aquino), a local youth group organized last week, are massed up at the city’s Centennial Park continuing to gather signatures to convince the young senator to run for president.